Border connectivity reduces concerns about other transmission chains.

The new modeling suggests that the number of affected people in the community could reach 120.

Sean Handy on his kitchen table, where he is modeling for New Zealand's Cove 19.

Sean Handy on his kitchen table, where he is modeling for New Zealand’s Cove 19.
Image: Provided

Genome Continuity has found that the current positive cases are a close match with a recent returnee from Sydney, who arrived on a well-organized Red Zone flight on August 7.

This is a promising link across the border, with Cowed 19 modeler Professor Sean Handy estimating that the number of people affected in the community could be “several dozen”, as opposed to 120, earlier this afternoon.

It was pending that Professor Handy was running more numbers for the latest model, since then the figures have come back like the initial predictions.

“The good news is that the later introduction date means the virus has been in the community for a short time. That means we’re probably not seeing many other unknown transmission chains.”

“However, when we look at the case numbers we’ve got so far, and when those people were potentially affected, we spread a lot, a lot faster over the last weekend, over the weekend. “

“The numbers show that some people were in places of interest, increasing in number every hour, while those affected,” he said.

Despite the predictions, Handy said there could still be “approximately 100 cases” in the community when the epidemic was first detected.

“We will be less concerned about other transmission chains there. This will help us put a ring around this particular cluster and give our contact tracers a better chance of overcoming it.”

He said that although the outlook was optimistic, it was still possible that the Covid 19 could not be detected in some parts of the country beyond Auckland.

This is an official Quad 19 alert.

All New Zealand. Coved 19 Alert is now at Level 4.

Alert levels will be assessed after 3 days for all areas except Auckland and Coromandel Peninsula, which are likely to remain at 4 levels for an initial period of 7 days.

A community case of Covid 19 has been identified.

Stay at home Where possible, follow the Alert Level 4 instructions. This will stop the spread of Covid 19 and save lives.

All are requested:

Wear a mask whenever you leave the house and keep a distance of 2 meters from others.

If you are ill, call your doctor or health line on 0800 358 5453 for advice on getting tested.

Keep scanning QR codes whenever you leave your home.

Follow good hygiene – wash your hands often.

Services including supermarkets, pharmacies, clinics and petrol stations will remain open at Alert Level 4. Facial coverage is a must for all people – employees and customers – in businesses and services that operate at Level 4 on customer contact alerts.

Go to Alert Level 4 for more information. [the government website]


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What he said – stay strong.


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