Covid 19 lockdown will ‘stop the virus in its tracks’, but the number of cases could rise for another week.

Covid 19 modeler Michael Planck says the Level 4 lockdown “will keep the virus in its tracks” and although the number of cases may continue to rise over the next week, he is hopeful that the number will decrease after that. Will start

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Dr. Ashley Bloomfield, Director General of Health, announced 11 new community cases of Cove 19 in the Auckland Region this afternoon, bringing the total number of New Zealand cases to 21.

Twelve cases are part of the same Auckland cluster, he said, while eight are still under investigation.

Michael Planck of the University of Canterbury Mathematics Department said it now appears that the virus has not been spreading in the community for weeks and is spreading rapidly without any control.

“Modeling shows that about 100 people were affected at the time,” he said.

“One of the good news is that sewage tests in Auckland have all been negative since last week, but since there is little time between someone being infected and a virus spreading in the sewage system, I think several hundred A major epidemic is spreading, but we are still seeing about 100 affected people.

It was announced this afternoon that three tests of wastewater collected in Auckland on Monday this week had yielded positive results – one at Roselle and one at both West and East stations.

Planck said the fact is that there are many young people who have a large number of positive contacts and at the same time the number of places of interest can take the number of affected people to more than 100.

He said Auckland’s lockdown was likely to last more than seven days.

However, epidemiologist Michael Baker said it was possible that Covid 19 was not spreading in New Zealand as initially suggested and was a precautionary measure against these early sites.

“It may be that in one case there are some symptoms of a cold or some other illness that goes a little further, and that the real focus is on more than around August 10,” Baker said.

Planck said he was still trying to determine how many people were infected before the virus spread.

“So we are teaming up Jigsaw to estimate the size of the epidemic and so we should expect case numbers to increase in the next few days as contact detection and testing results come out.”

Planck said the large number of cases will not necessarily indicate how fast Covid 19 is spreading, but rather how large the epidemic is.

The lockdown will “keep the virus in its tracks,” he said.

“We know Alert Level 4, the strict restrictions on us, everyone sticking to their bubbles, will greatly reduce the transmission, but of course we wouldn’t expect to see another week in case numbers. Will pass. “

Planck said the number of cases could be expected to rise next week or so, but hoped that the effects of the lockdown would be evident in bringing down the number of cases.

He said the fact that New Zealand went into lockdown so quickly provided the best chance of overcoming the epidemic.

“It gives our contact tracers the time they need to work because once you look at Sydney and find 600 cases a day, it’s really impossible for the contact tracing system to do its job effectively. Goes. “

He said that keeping New Zealand’s Kovid 19 numbers down and its link tracing system gives the country every chance to finally eradicate the virus.

This is an official COVID-19 alert.

All New Zealand. Coved 19 Alert is now at Level 4.

Alert levels will be assessed after 3 days for all areas except Auckland and Coromandel Peninsula, which are likely to remain at 4 levels for an initial period of 7 days.

A community case of Covid 19 has been identified.

Stay at home Where possible, follow the Alert Level 4 instructions. This will stop the spread of COVID-19 and save lives.

All are requested:

Wear a mask whenever you leave the house and keep a distance of 2 meters from others.

If you are ill, call your doctor or health line on 0800 358 5453 for advice on getting tested.

Keep scanning QR codes whenever you leave your home.

Follow good hygiene – wash your hands often.

Services including supermarkets, pharmacies, clinics and petrol stations will remain open at Alert Level 4. Facial coverage is a must for all people – employees and customers – in businesses and services that operate at Level 4 on customer contact alerts.

Go to Alert Level 4 for more information. [the government website]


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What he said – stay strong.


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