The spread of Covid 19 may be smaller than expected at first after receiving the border link.

A promising link linking the Auckland cluster to the border means the epidemic could be significantly smaller than initially feared, says a Cowboy 19 modeler.

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Professor Sean Handy
Image: Sean Handy

Genome continuity has found current positive issues. A recent return from Sydney is a close match., Who arrived on August 7 on an organized Red Zone flight.

Professor Sean Handy said this meant that the number of infected people in the community at the time the outbreak was detected could now be “several dozen”.

“It was really positive news. The news that there is a possible genomic link with a recent returnee really changes our perspective,” Handy said.

“Obviously there is still work to be done to end this connection. We do not yet have an epidemic link to the returnee, but certainly the genomic evidence is evidence of strong enough conditions …

“But certainly genomic evidence is evidence of strong enough conditions and the best news is the recent return, which means that if it came from that person, the virus would be out in the community for much less time.” Gone as we thought yesterday. Reduce our number estimates. “

When the Alert Level 4 lockdown was announced Tuesday evening, Director General of Health Dr. Ashley Bloomfield said people should be prepared for the number of affected people in the community to be between 50 and 120.

Handy said it now appears that the number will be significantly lower than that, suggesting it could be “less than 100 cases”.

He said, “The good news is that this is a recent comeback. It means that if it came from this person, the virus is out in the community for a much shorter time than we did. I thought yesterday. “

“And it will reduce our estimates of numbers and make it easier to overcome this cluster.”

Handy said modeling is being resumed this afternoon and people can expect to get updated numbers later today.


This is an official Quad 19 alert.

All New Zealand. Coved 19 Alert is now at Level 4.

Alert levels will be assessed after 3 days for all areas except Auckland and Coromandel Peninsula, which are likely to remain at 4 levels for an initial period of 7 days.

A community case of Covid 19 has been identified.

Stay at home Where possible, follow the Alert Level 4 instructions. This will stop the spread of Covid 19 and save lives.

All are requested:

Wear a mask whenever you leave the house and keep a distance of 2 meters from others.

If you are ill, call your doctor or health line on 0800 358 5453 for advice on getting tested.

Keep scanning QR codes whenever you leave your home.

Follow good hygiene – wash your hands often.

Services including supermarkets, pharmacies, clinics and petrol stations will remain open at Alert Level 4. Facial coverage is a must for all people – employees and customers – in businesses and services that operate at Level 4 on customer contact alerts.

Go to Alert Level 4 for more information. [the government website]


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What he said – stay strong.


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