The number of new cases a day in Auckland’s Delta community outbreak continues to show a plateau in the spread of the quaid, but another group of people is causing concern for experts: “mysterious” cases are boiling.
As of Tuesday, there are 19 cases involving 24 communities. Not yet linked to epidemics. To spread – less than 3% of the community cluster.
One expert says that number is declining day by day as public health officials get in touch with the issues, but the group will be the “key” in determining whether Auckland is on alert. Can take
“As long as we’re looking at unrelated cases, it’s going to be very difficult,” said Michael Baker, an epidemiologist and University of Otago (Wellington) professor. [for Auckland] Go to Alert Level 3.
of the 21 cases were reported on Tuesday., Only one was not yet associated with epidemics.
Earlier this week, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said authorities were continuing to monitor. “Permanent” cases related to the epidemic.. Some of this should be expected – as close contacts and family members test positive – but some new cases are unrelated, or “mysterious” cases.
“These are important because unless we know where the case came from, we can’t say that we have other transmission chains in the community that we have not yet isolated.
“This is a cause for concern.” Ordner said., Calls should be renewed for all people with cold and flu symptoms.
During a press conference on Tuesday, Director General of Health Dr. Ashley Bloomfield said that the number of unlinked cases Expect to keep falling..
He said it could take some time to find links to epidemics, especially when there is a “small chance of exposure” to the site.
When officials talk about issues that are not related to epidemics, “most” are related to other issues and there is no clear explanation of how they relate to the current epidemic or the previous case. Are
“We may have a very strong idea of where this happened, but we can’t identify the direct transfer from one person to another,” he said earlier.
There can be no clear link from any source, but the gap can always be filled with complete genome sequencing and further discussion, and “most of these issues can be linked.”
All the cases that have happened. Sequential To date – the calculation of the majority of clusters, except where there was not enough RNA content – has been “explicitly linked” to a single introduction to Delta in the community.
Officials, meanwhile, are effectively asking public health teams to “date stamp” mysterious cases to find out when they occurred.
As there were many exhibition events in the beginning, the old mystery cases are not so disturbing. “But if you’re taking them later, they’re more dangerous for us.” Ordner said Monday.
It is not clear how many of the current 24 unrelated cases were recent or were historic cases in the epidemic.
Baker said there was evidence that a large number of people had already been affected by the time Case A was discovered, meaning the city was “seeded” with cases and multiple transmission lines.
Health officials want to see that each new case is already part of a well-known cluster, Baker said.
“The things you don’t want to see are the ones that haven’t been connected to the diagnosed people in recent days,” he said.
“Every time you look. [a mystery case], This is another transmission line you don’t know about.
As long as these mysterious cases continue to escalate, there may be an undetectable transmission, he said: “We have put too much weight on them.”
Ordner also hinted at this on Monday. Mysterious matters will be “especially important to us.” In reviewing the next steps for Auckland.
“If you took them correctly at the beginning of your spread, it’s very different if you get a total of 20. We also look at it.
Bloomfield echoed this, saying there were two decisions he would look at before making his decision: one was fewer cases, and two were “effectively no mystery case.”
The cabinet will review Auckland’s alert level settings on Monday 13 September.