The fall market is slowly beginning, right?
I mean, just. 148 New lists in C01 and C08 on Tuesday?
For reference, anything over 80 that I would call “busy.” Anything over 100 that I would call “market conditions”.
But 148? And on First Days back after summer?
I would say the market is doing exactly what I expected!
Every summer, my active buyers regret the presence of customers. Selection. If you were a buyer of a reality television show tasked with moving to Savannah, Georgia and finding a suitable home to buy, you will see Three Home, complain about the little things in every property, then. Select Buy another one.
But here in Toronto, you would be foolish to think that you would be able to go out on a pleasant Saturday afternoon as usual, with Mocha Farapochino in hand, and strolling through three, four, or five properties that Meets your standards.
During some slower periods of the year, you may find. One The appropriate listing per week depends on your desired location, price point and quality of housing, you can get an appropriate listing per week. Year!
I have clients who have been inactive for a year or more. “When Okay fine Come home, we’ll be players, “said the client.
Whether you’re looking for something very specific and ready to wait a year or more, or whether you’re looking for a 3 bedroom semi-detached place in Bilour West Village, you won’t find that many options. Will
One thing I have never been told in my entire career: “I am overwhelmed by it. Selection We have it in the market!
This past summer was one of the most barren markets I’ve ever visited.
No matter the price point, location, or type of property, all of my clients regretted, “When will we see more? Inventory? “
The fact that the word “inventory” is commonly used by men and women is a sign of the times. And I honestly have lost track of how many times this past summer I’ve been asked if inventory usually grows this fall.
It’s as if every summer buyer is just waiting for autumn. Why? Because it’s just compulsory Get better, okay?
In Tuesday’s blog post, we looked at three burning questions:
1) How will the federal election shape the future of the housing market?
2) What’s going to happen with the condo market?
3) What will happen with the overall “affordable housing”?
In my mind, these were the questions I wanted to answer more than anything.
But there is a big question, and a big problem, both of which are connected to the three topics mentioned above, and that’s about it. Inventory.
I’m here to kill a dead horse. I’m basically crawling inside the corpse and taking a nap. But everything In our market, good and bad, short term and long term, freehold and condo, come back. Inventory. Every problem and every solution is related. Inventory.
So what did August look like in this regard?
We saw the least. New lists In more than a decade
New lists were down about 43 percent from the same period last year.
For a market where every participant and viewer is crying out for rising prices, it’s easy to identify the problem, isn’t it?
No, the problem is not that the citizens of this country are not taxed enough.
The problem is not with investors or speculators.
The problem is not that foreign buyers are getting restless.
The problem is that most people do not want to sell their home.
And while the “solution” offered for the past decade has been to reduce demand, efforts have failed miserably.
How do you get more properties for sale in the open market? Well, Goli G, just ask the PMO office candidates because they all seem to have solutions!
With an average of 12,186 new lists in August each year, this August saw a figure 13 percent lower than the average. You may think that 13% is not important, but it is relatively basic. If you consider it. Absolute By the way, these are very few properties for sale and everyone in the market will notice it!
When it comes down to it Active Listings, figures are also blurred. In fact, it reduces new lists by 13%. in fact Feel like a round mistake:
This is not typing.
8,201 active listings by the end of August, compared to 16,662 in 2020, or 15,870 in 2019, or 17,864 in 2018!
As much as we want to say, “The summer of 2020 was an outlay,” it would have no weight if 2017, 2018 and 2019 were all in the same range.
The 8,201 active lists in August are not the lowest since 2007, according to the chart. They are the lowest Ever In the recorded history of TRREB
With an average of 16,893 active listings in August over the last fifteen years, I didn’t need to tell you how much there is talk of inventory issues in our market looking at 8,201 in the last month.
Now what sell out?
Let’s take a look:
Ah, well, so last month’s sales were only 8,596?
No big deal, right? 19.9% decline from 2020?
Of course, the 10,775 sales recorded in August 2020 was a full-time record, and Average The number of sales in the last fifteen years is 7,715.
So, in August 2021, sales were 11.4% Top On average, new lists were about 13 percent Down Average
What does it do for the absorption rate?
Oh, sorry, it does:
Yes, this is just an all time high SNLR in August, no big deal.
This is only 23% more than last August.
Only 17% higher than average in the last 15 years.
Now, if you want. Some Symbol of good news, it comes with the fact that SNLR always sinks from August to September.
A look at SNLR and related percentage change in August compared to September:
On average, we see a decrease of 12.6%.
So if we take 81 S SNLR in August and reduce it to 12.6 by, we end up with 68.4 of SNLR in September, even now Stay up all the time
But what if we follow 2020 and see only a 4.0% decline?
Then we look at the SNLR of 77.0 of, in which the next highest figure was 67.3, in 2009, and then, in 2016, 65.3 was recorded.
Either way, the summer market was so tight that it would be impossible to avoid similar situations this fall.
Yes, the market exploded with inventory on Tuesday and Wednesday, but it is still not enough.
And that’s just the way we’re going through the first eight months of 2020.
Just for fun, if you can call it that, I’d like to see the activity to date.
When it comes to sales, 2021 has been absolutely ridiculous:
We have seen 88,256 sales from January 1 to August 31, which also takes the heat of 2016 and 2017 out of the water.
The data above “88,256” contains no business. This is the answer your child will shout if he is playing the famous Sesame Street game, “One of these things is not like the others.”
When we gather sell out Thus far in 2021 Inventory And look at the accumulated SNLR, we get the following:
So far 70.0 S is SNLR. the second As of 2016, but it is still ahead of the rest, as well as a modest average of 58.1%.
Last but not least, I just wanted to move the proportion of new lists to active lists.
This is not a metric that is commonly used, if at all. I think I just made it.
But when looking for outliers, sometimes more data points are helpful:
I would say that this is a terrible personality. If you are hoping that the market will end this fall and you can finally afford the house of your dreams, wouldn’t you say?
It is almost a great loss that these 88,256 new lists have been compiled in the annual history, only this is a real statistic and this 157.8 ratio has been made to some extent.
But it shows how much less supply than demand in the city!
Inventory is being absorbed at record rates, and even if we see an increase in new listings, it seems as if demand is increasing.
So, if there is a market. the bear Left there, I’d love to hear from you today. Specifically, your views, after viewing this data. How And Why The Toronto market will not only stop appreciating, it will actually decline.
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