Opinion: With the local and global corporate reporting season largely complete and ashes, it is becoming an exciting week on the macroeconomic data front.
The June quarter GDP numbers will show that the New Zealand economy was performing very well before moving to the recent Delta. Covid-19 lockdown.
The USCPI (Consumer Price Index) print for August will indicate how hot inflation is going.
These are important ideas for the world’s central bankers, following the unprecedented financial and stimulus released by nations in response to epidemics. A balanced process remains to keep the triggers flowing to ensure that economies recover from the depths of epidemics, but Not so much that inflation is out of control..
Here in New Zealand, of course, the Reserve Bank was ready to be the first to break the mold and raise interest rates. 11 effectively prevented it from doing so.Th Hours from this fresh epidemic.. Adrian Orr says it has only delayed delaying inevitably tightening interest rates.
* Rising home prices shouldn’t be part of post-lockout maintenance, but what does that mean?
* Lockdown 2.0 shatters tourism’s hopes of seeing international visitors return in 2022.
* Reserve Bank Home Price Forecast: Are They Right Now?
* New Zealand is unlikely to suffer much during this lockdown.
Meanwhile, the RBNZ is taking other steps to cool parts of the economy that are running hot (That is the housing market., Consultation period continues for proposed changes in the level of Bank LVR lending.
June’s GDP numbers are expected to be strong this week, with the New Zealand economy forecast to grow 1.5 percent over the quarter, and 16 percent higher than a year ago (and Fastest growth rate since 1987)
Last year’s comparative period was heavily affected by the lockdown, so some context is needed, such as the fact that the September quarter will see a material shrink (possibly 4%).
After being free of covid for a while, lockdown has once again shaken our lifestyle. We saw evidence of this on Friday, with NZ data reporting that retail card spending fell 19.8 percent last month, excluding all types of consumer goods (including groceries and alcohol).
The good news is that spending cuts were less than halved in April 2020, when the country was put on lockdown with the arrival of the quaid. This time it’s less than shocking. As we now know, with borders closed abroad, and interest rates so low, the Kiwis stormed out of the lockdown.
It’s on and big ticket items (other than houses) like cars. At this point, Turners Automotive Group, which is thriving amid strong demand for cars, predicted a strong jump in car sales last week (they are the largest buyers and sellers in New Zealand). After I soften.
It is possible that the power of Kiwi consumers is also in evidence when Burscoz releases its half-yearly numbers this week. The company revealed in early August that sales are expected to grow by about 6.22.6%., With the sale of sporting goods and household goods.
Consumer spending has not receded during home stay orders due to a lack of consent, and the sugar rush appears to be ready to continue. This dynamic is going on all over the world. However, the key question is when will the central bank start removing the punch bowl? For New Zealand, the latest delta epidemic has temporarily receded.
It’s never easy to call it a night (or a day) when the mood is high, but sometimes it’s enough, and the pressure of inflation will be something that officials pay close attention to.
Rising inflation is clearly a global trend, and at its heart are many drivers, including all stimuli, but also supply chain pressures – as evidenced by the US data on Friday – in producer prices in August. 0.7% increase in almost 11 years annual profit (+8.3%)
We’ll see how it’s all filtering out consumers, with US CPI data this week. Expectations are set for an increase of about 0.4%, and a “hot number” could give the US Federal Reserve enough to think ahead of its meeting next week (with US retail sales figures), and Even if it lowers the level. Quantitative easing.
To date, central banks have been quick to argue that all inflation is “temporary”, a theory I believe is difficult to justify. Prices are not rising just because of weak competition or supply “barriers”. In some cases, officials may be forced to face this fact, and stop kicking in the street.
“Despite our own delta situation, there is still much to be done,” he said. New Zealand’s economy is expected to grow strongly this year, and the next, and perhaps like, punch cup will be slowly snatched away. Vaccination rates are high, But deltas (or possibly other new forms) still exist among us.
Interest rates will not rise dramatically overnight, and this should allow stock markets to adjust to the situation.
Another reason to celebrate is to ease geopolitical tensions. US President Joe Biden and Chinese leader Xi Jinping have spoken out for the first time in seven months. While things are clearly still cool, the ice is broken, the era of diplomacy under the new US administration can still make an impact here, and China is still our biggest customer.
This past weekend has provided a reason to remember another crisis that shook the world 20 years ago. I was actually on a United Airlines flight off the coast of New York the day the planes collided with the Twin Towers. It was absolutely horrible. I think many living that day knew that the world had changed forever. Stock markets have finally moved on, and as they are once again in the midst of the current crisis facing the world.
The last 18 months have clearly been difficult for many, but they have finally come up with a new vision in which much of the economy looks better than frightening results. And speeding up the vaccination program and reopening international borders (Hopefully within the next six months) Will give a respite to our troubled tourism and hospitality sector.
The New Zealand stock market itself has held up well during the latest lockdown, which probably comes down to the view that we were “here before” and a little less worried about what lies ahead. Timeline) How it all ends.
However, we all have the opportunity to come up with a new perspective long ago.
Facebook has teamed up with Ray Ban to launch enhanced reality glasses that will allow wearers to listen to music, take calls or take photos and short videos (and of course share them on Facebook).
Complete with Virtual Assistant, and voice commands, Glass Line, called “Ray-Bean Stories,” costs a whopping 29 299, and at this point will be an “ad-free experience.” And an important step by Mark Zuckerberg. Metavers view, Or a shared virtual environment that he thinks the mobile Internet will succeed.
Sometimes it’s really about perspective.